On the evening of January 5, yutong bus released its production and sales data for December 2015. According to its previously released data, yutong sold 67,000 vehicles in 2015, up 9.15 percent year-on-year. The daily business news understands that the growth of yutong bus is driven by the growth of new energy bus sales.
Yutong is not the only one. New energy bus has become an important pillar for the performance growth of most bus listed companies in 2015. In the eyes of some industry insiders, high subsidy is an important reason for the promotion of new energy bus.
The most typical example is that after the subsidy, the purchase cost of new energy customers is almost reduced to zero. This greatly increases the profit of relevant vehicle enterprises and parts suppliers, thus better promoting the development of new energy automobile industry chain. However, as the new energy light passenger market tends to be saturated and subsidies decline, the dependence of the new energy commercial vehicle market on light passenger will also change.
New energy light passenger car "zero cost"
New energy passenger cars have become an important pillar of the performance of some commercial vehicle enterprises. According to some brokerage analysts' estimates, a quarter of yutong's sales of 67,000 vehicles are expected to come from new energy buses.
In fact, new energy bus also for dongfeng motor, foton motor, jinlong automobile and other enterprises made a great contribution to the performance.
The reporter understands, in accordance with the previous (2013-2015), the central government to the new energy bus subsidy policy, depending on the bus standards such as size, range, new energy buses may obtain 150000 yuan to 500000 yuan of central government subsidies, and under the local subsidies support of 1:1, the subsidy can reach 300000 yuan to 1 million yuan.
"Including subsidies, many [new energy] buses are bought cheaply, and some of them cost nothing." Cui dongshu, general secretary of the national passenger car market information association, told China Daily business daily that under the quota, new energy light passengers can receive subsidies of up to 600,000 yuan from the central and local governments, which can even offset the car's selling price. High subsidy is the most important reason to promote the sales of high - energy bus.
Under the high subsidies, new energy buses especially light passenger became the new energy promotion of an important breakthrough in the field of commercial vehicles.
According to statistics from the equipment industry department of the ministry of industry and information technology, in the first 11 months of 2015, the production of new energy commercial vehicles reached 109,000, up 90 percent year-on-year. Among them, the production of new energy bus has reached nearly 80,000, and light passenger has become the most important model of new energy bus.
"Sales of new energy light passenger vehicles account for 79 percent of new energy passenger vehicles." National "863" plan energy conservation and new energy vehicles key projects overall expert group leader ouyang minggao has said.
Driven by new energy light passenger, the promotion of new energy in the field of commercial vehicles has been carried out smoothly. In addition, in the view of some industry insiders, the high subsidies bring considerable profits to some commercial vehicle enterprises, and at the same time, relevant new energy auto parts enterprises also get good development opportunities.
City logistics to encourage purchase of new energy car
In this background, more and more car companies began to overweight new energy bus market.
According to the reporter, including yutong bus, jinlong automobile, foton automobile and other car companies have increased research and development costs to varying degrees, the main direction of investment is new energy technology. But in the view of some insiders, the new energy bus market space is limited.
"Light passenger market capacity of about 180000 vehicles a year, 2015 new energy vehicles may account for 60000 of these, about a third of the share." An analyst at industrial securities, told the daily economic news "reporter said," in each market segment, such has the highest permeability, short time is difficult to have big improvement."
More importantly, the important factor supporting the new energy bus - financial subsidies, will also start to enter the decline channel this year. Reporters learned that from 2016, the new energy bus subsidies will change the past only according to the size of the vehicle to set the way, the mileage has become an important standard. In addition, from 2016 to 2019, the subsidy of new energy bus will decrease year by year. Among them, central and local subsidies for new energy light passenger vehicles ranged from 350,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan per vehicle in 2016, and will drop to 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan in 2019. That's a sharp drop from the peak of 600,000 yuan in 2015. In addition, the subsidy for medium and large passenger cars will be lowered to 700,000 yuan to 1 million yuan.
This means that in the case of reduced subsidies, the purchase cost of new energy light passenger increased correspondingly in 2016. Whether light passenger can maintain substantial growth will be challenged.
"From November 2015, new energy light passenger sales continued to surge." "At that time, many people pointed out that this was because the subsidy for car purchase in 2016 would be lowered, which was consumption in advance," cui told reporters.
Under such circumstances, whether the new energy commercial vehicle market can maintain growth in 2016 is uncertain. In fact, some car companies have begun to find new growth points.
"Urban logistics vehicles will be a growth point for new energy commercial vehicles in 2016." Industrial securities above the analysts think. The reason is that according to the "several opinions on further supporting the promotion and application of new energy vehicles" issued by relevant ministries and commissions, it also puts forward certain requirements on the proportion of newly updated urban logistics distribution vehicles and new energy vehicles.
Therefore, dongfeng motor, foton motor, jianghuai automobile and other enterprises have begun to layout new energy vehicles for urban logistics. It is expected that with the change of new energy commercial vehicle growth point, the enterprise performance may change accordingly.